The issuance of a digital ruble could seriously change the Russian payment space, and not only in a positive way. About it declared Director of Innovation at Uralsib Bank Dmitry Grishin in his column in Forbes magazine.
Among the advantages of domestic CBDC he named new scenarios for the use of non-cash payment instruments and the emergence of “colored” money.
“Potentially, this opens the way for a generation of fintech startups that implement new client services on its infrastructure,” Grishin explained.
At the same time, with the advent of a new asset, the expert predicts a reduction in bank income. Earlier, Sberbank estimated a possible outflow of bank funds at the level of 2-4 trillion rubles.
“According to the Central Bank, the transition to the digital ruble will lead to a loss of 25% of profit before tax and 13% of net interest income from the banking sector. This is due to the fact that the digital ruble will not be on the balance sheet of banks, but in the Central Bank,” Dmitry Grishin believes.
The asset may also have a negative effect on the credit market.
“There is a risk that the tool, created to reduce the cost of banking operations, will lead to an increase in lending rates due to the compression of such cheap liquidity as current account balances,” Grishin admitted.
According to him, against the backdrop of record lending in 2021, this could lead to a cooling of the lending market and a slowdown in economic growth based on the credit impulse.
Recall that the prototype of the digital ruble platform was presented in December 2021. The first testers of the asset included 12 banks.
In January 2022, Promsvyazbank began piloting C2C payments with the digital ruble.
Domestic CBDC as a third form of money is planned to be launched before 2030.
According to the forecast of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, by the end of 2024, 9 trillion rubles may flow into a new asset from banks.
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The issuance of a digital ruble could seriously change the Russian payment space, and not only in a positive way. About it declared Director of Innovation at Uralsib Bank Dmitry Grishin in his column in Forbes magazine.
Among the advantages of domestic CBDC he named new scenarios for the use of non-cash payment instruments and the emergence of “colored” money.
“Potentially, this opens the way for a generation of fintech startups that implement new client services on its infrastructure,” Grishin explained.
At the same time, with the advent of a new asset, the expert predicts a reduction in bank income. Earlier, Sberbank estimated a possible outflow of bank funds at the level of 2-4 trillion rubles.
“According to the Central Bank, the transition to the digital ruble will lead to a loss of 25% of profit before tax and 13% of net interest income from the banking sector. This is due to the fact that the digital ruble will not be on the balance sheet of banks, but in the Central Bank,” Dmitry Grishin believes.
The asset may also have a negative effect on the credit market.
“There is a risk that the tool, created to reduce the cost of banking operations, will lead to an increase in lending rates due to the compression of such cheap liquidity as current account balances,” Grishin admitted.
According to him, against the backdrop of record lending in 2021, this could lead to a cooling of the lending market and a slowdown in economic growth based on the credit impulse.
Recall that the prototype of the digital ruble platform was presented in December 2021. The first testers of the asset included 12 banks.
In January 2022, Promsvyazbank began piloting C2C payments with the digital ruble.
Domestic CBDC as a third form of money is planned to be launched before 2030.
According to the forecast of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, by the end of 2024, 9 trillion rubles may flow into a new asset from banks.
Subscribe to Cryplogger news in Telegram: Cryplogger Feed – the entire news feed, Cryplogger — the most important news, infographics and opinions.
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