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A fall in the price of bitcoin down from the protracted consolidation looks like the most likely scenario. Since the springs of the markets have compressed as much as possible, an exit in one direction or another is likely in the coming days or even hours, said Janis Kivkulis, lead strategist at EXANTE.
Bitcoin price fluctuations in the last two months fit well into a triangle with frequent bounces from levels near $31,500 and a resumption of sales from ever lower levels. A month ago, the bounce lost strength by $40,000, a couple of weeks ago the price reversed already at levels above $36,000, and at the beginning of the week, sellers took over at $34,000.
So far, bitcoin is supported by the belief of enthusiasts in its attractiveness in the event of a price drop by half from peak levels. However, the reversal trend down from ever lower levels is a significant selling factor.
Given the hype specifics of cryptocurrencies – they are often bought based on rapid growth – prolonged consolidation is increasingly disappointing for speculators. Bitcoin trading volumes have plummeted in the past two months, down four-fold from what they were at peak price levels as investors wait for further declines and speculators curtail activity.
Among the technical signals on the side of the bears is the fall of bitcoin below its 200-day average at the end of last month and an unsuccessful attempt to return above this level at the start of July. On the Bitcoin chart, a “death cross” is formed when the 50-day moving average crosses down the 200-day moving average.
A failure below the support line at $31,500 can take the price below $30,000 in a matter of hours. Then the question of falling down to the levels of $23,300, where bitcoin was gathering strength for a breakthrough in January 2021, becomes relevant. It cannot be ruled out that with the acceleration, the price will even close the gap in the $18,000 area. Such a turn of events could become a repeat of the 2018 crypto winter. It will open up the opportunity for a commensurate price collapse with a bottom near $10,000 and nullify the rally of the first cryptocurrency, which began in October 2020.
Ethereum has been under pressure since July 7, returning to the lows of last month during this time, which is in line with the overall market dynamics. At the same time, the current level near $1900 used to be a significant area of resistance. On the chart of the second cryptocurrency, a “head and shoulders” pattern has been formed, which creates a significant potential for a decline to $600-700 if the market gives up the current line of defense.
Bitcoin, like Ethereum, has formed the prerequisites for an extremely strong decline in the event of a failure under the current levels. More worryingly, there has been a lull in the cryptocurrency market in recent days, reminiscent of a consolidation of bear forces before a big blow. And this situation should not be regarded as the stability of the crypto market against the backdrop of a sale in stocks or raw materials. In recent months, we have seen more than once how quickly a lull can be replaced by a massive collapse.
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