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Pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton believes there is less than a 3% chance that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will win Ripple outright as the end of the protracted lawsuit approaches.
The founder of CryptoLaw has actively defended Ripple against the SEC, which filed a lawsuit against the company in December 2020, alleging that the sale of its XRP token (XRP) constituted an unregistered securities offering.
On the June 3 episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast, Deaton said that he estimated a 25% chance that Presiding U.S. District Judge Torres would rule in favor of Ripple, and a 50% chance that Ripple would win through “split child.” resolution.
This refers to Judge Torress, who “draws a line in the sand” where she could potentially rule that XRP was being offered as a non-registered security prior to 2018. However, following the Hinman papers, which reference a 2018 speech given by former SEC director William Hinman: it is possible that cryptocurrencies could move from securities to commodities once they become sufficiently decentralized.
“I think that XRP itself would not be considered a security and I think secondary market sales are showing comments. Even [судья Торрес] will rule that Ripple violated the law, this does not apply to sales in the secondary market,” Deaton explained.
While Ripple executives, including its CEO Brad Garlinghouse, have long predicted the imminent end of the SEC litigation, Deaton emphasized that Judge Torres is likely to make a final decision before September 30 of this year.
Deaton drew attention to what he called a “six-month list” that district judges must submit to Congress. The list details all summary judgments that are pending for more than six months. It comes out on the last day of March and the last day of September.
“She [судья Торрес] never been on this list. It’s like a public shame list that says, “Look, I’m shitty at my job.”
In addition, Deaton also gave his price predictions for Ripple’s native XRP token after the positive decision.
“I definitely think that somewhere they think that 2 and 10 dollars is reasonable”
Related: Pro-XRP lawyer phone hacked to promote LAW token
Speaking to Cointelegraph on May 22, Deaton said that the Ripple community should also keep a close eye on June 13, when investors find out if XRP was indeed discussed “between SEC officials prior to Hinman’s speech.” This is the date that Hinman’s material is most likely to be revealed and could have a strong impact on the case.
There are also rumors that Ripple could potentially launch an IPO as a public company after the lawsuit is over.
NEW: April, @Ripple hosted a private “road show” (a marketing event where a company and its underwriters meet with potential investors to generate interest in an IPO). I’m told it was attended by just about every reputable institutional investment firm on the Street. https://t.co/fyTzi6pr0W
— Eleanor Terrett (@Eleanor Terrett) June 1, 2023
According to Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett on June 2, Ripple held a “roadshow” where it met with underwriters and other investors to generate interest in a potential public offering.
Cryptocurrency Twitter Hall of Flame: XRP lawyer John Deaton: “10x more in BTC, 4x more in ETH”