The bearish phase of Bitcoin will end in 250 days if the market cycle repeats. Such calculations were made by analysts at Grayscale Investments.
The length, range, and recovery time of past market cycles may hold important lessons for our present cycle. Read the latest report from @Mattmaximo1 and @mzhao8 to learn more: https://t.co/N81LZ4awoz
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) July 16, 2022
According to experts, the duration of bitcoin cycles averages four years or approximately 1275 days.
The trigger for the transition to the bearish phase is the fall of the realized price below the market price. We are talking about the MVRV indicator, which FokLog spoke about in cards. In March 2021, experts excluded the signal from consideration, pointing to the shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The last time the realized price fell below the market price was on June 13, 2022. Previously, this state lasted an average of 250 days. As of July 12, only 21 days have passed since the beginning of the phase.
According to historical data, the bullish phases of Bitcoin have become more extended in time. If in 2012 the market took 603 days to reach the peak, then in 2016 and 2020 it took 786 and 952 days, respectively.
At each next iteration, the duration increased by 180 days. Experts attributed this to the growing maturity of the market.
In general, it took about four years for Bitcoin to complete the full cycle of 2012 in 2016 (1290 and 1257 days in these cases, respectively). It took 391 and 364 days to fall from the peak by 73% in 2012 and by 84% in 2016.
The duration of the current cycle of 2020 has reached 1198 days (as of July 12, 2022). In other words, it may take another four months or so before the sale price exceeds the market price.
The record high was reached 222 days ago. This means another five to six months of downward or sideways price movement. Historically, the bottom of the market each time comes a month earlier, experts explained.
Given the repetition of market history, current levels represent an opportunity for long-term investors to open positions, concluded Grayscale Investments.
Cryplogger is not responsible for the investment decisions of readers.
Recall that a Bloomberg poll showed a higher chance of a decline in the price of bitcoin to $10,000than her return to $30,000.
In July, the agency strategist Mike McGlone predicted growth of the first cryptocurrency in the next six months.
Earlier, the head of the management company Rockefeller International, Ruchir Sharma, noted that bitcoin need to get rid of excess shouldersto become sustainable again.
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