- The week will be full of macro data
- This will affect the alignment of forces of the dollar and bitcoin
- Therefore, we follow important events
The crypto market starts the week with moderate sideways growth. Bitcoin is currently trading at $30,660.21, which is +0.49% per day. Ethereum gained bullish momentum and reached its highest level since May, surpassing $1,950.
The capitalization of the world market has reached $1.2 trillion. This is 2.5% more than a week ago.
In the first half of 2023, the value of bitcoin almost doubled, rising from $16,000 on January 1st to over $30,000 as of June 30th. It has become one of the safest investment assets in 6 months, outperforming such assets as gold, S&P 500, Nikkei 225 index and others.
Investors expect the uptrend to continue and are optimistic about the new week. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is currently at 63, down from 55 a week ago.
This week, the development of markets will be influenced by several important points.
Monday. Half year opening, US PMI
The American Nadsaq index closed a record six months in its history. And all this against the backdrop of fears of bank problems and, possibly, the delayed effect of higher interest rates.
Interestingly, more than 50% of the entire benchmark is accounted for by the 7 largest Nasdaq companies. In this regard, investors are trying to understand what it is – a speculative bubble or new market realities?
US stock and bond markets will close earlier today and remain closed on Tuesday for Independence Day. However, we already have the first data from other regions. The June Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China was 50.5. This is below the May value of 50.9, but better than analysts’ forecast of 50.2.
In the afternoon, the US is to publish data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM. Investors expect the overall PMI to rise to 47.2 from a record low of 46.9 in May. If the forecast is justified or higher, it will help the dollar to maintain its strength in the afternoon. For the crypto market, a weaker PMI will benefit in the short term.
Other metrics Monday: macroeconomic data on the industry and services in Japan, industrial PMI in Germany and the Eurozone and Poland, the speech of the head of the Bundesbank Joachim Nagel, investment in construction in the United States.
Tuesday. World Economic Outlook
Tuesday will be the quietest day of the trading week, unless there is shock news.
Market experts will study the German trade balance, follow the decision of the Bank of Australia (RBA) on interest rates and PMI data in the manufacturing sector in Canada.
Wednesday. Protocol from the Fed
FOMC minutes will be released on July 5. They should shed light on the June central bank meeting.
FOMC minutes are transcripts of meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee that document monetary policy decisions. Compared to public speaking, the minutes provide a more detailed view of the discussions of the FOMC members. This allows market participants to better understand what underlies their decisions and predict future monetary policy.
However, it is worth considering that Powell has made two public appearances since the meeting. Therefore, it is unlikely that the protocols will offer any new ideas. Nevertheless, we do not rule out volatility in the market.
Other environment metrics: China and Eurozone Service PMI, US Durable Goods Orders, New York Fed speech by John C. Williams.
Thursday. US labor market
On Thursday, we are waiting for several metrics on employment in the US. This is data from ADP analysts and a JOLT report on unfilled vacancies. They precede government reports due on Friday. And they will help confirm or refute the fears of investors about the coming recession.
The optimistic scenario is supported by comments from Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan. In an interview CNN he said that US inflation could fall to the Fed’s target of 2% by 2025. But the expert also warned of a “higher chance of a moderate recession.”
Thursday’s other metrics: MPC interest rate decision, German industrial orders, US private sector employment (ADP) dynamics, US trade balance (import/export), jobless claims, Logan Fed speech, ISM index for services
Friday. Nonfarm payrolls in the USA
Friday’s employment report will be the most important event of the week. Economists predict 200,000 new jobs are expected in June. If it justifies, it gives optimistic forecasts: it looks like the US economy is avoiding a deep recession, despite the Fed’s tough stance.
A successful report will play into the hands of the stock market and cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, a weak labor market could push the Fed to sharply raise rates at its next meeting. This will not add optimism to investors.
Friday’s other metrics: Japan’s unemployment data, Germany’s industrial production, Nagel’s Bundesbank speech, ECB speeches by Christine Lagarde and Luis de Guindos.
What news are we following all week?
The key influence on the market will be provided by the SEC decisions on bitcoin-ETF. How important this is, we observed this weekend. BTC temporarily dropped to $29,800 when the SEC returned some applications for revision. This undermined the bullish sentiment of investors. Later there were rumors that the commission plans to approve a number of applications, so you need to be prepared to respond to such news.
By the way, analysts are already predicting key dates and terms for the bitcoin ETF from the BlackRock giant.
Also, the market will be affected by news about Binance and other major players.
It is most convenient to track up-to-date information on our website. Let’s have a productive week everyone!