Sell orders from “new investors” at levels near $30,000 were the main factor in the suspension of the Bitcoin rally. Unconfirmed rumors about the sale of Mt.Gox customers, the US government and the revival of the “ancient” 3200 BTC only led to volatility, Glassnode pointed out.
This week, the market experienced a sharp sell-off, following what turned out to be false rumors related to distributions by the Mt. Gox Trustee, and the US Government.
Add to this the revival of 3.2k ancient #BTCand the market found itself amidst serious volatility.
— glassnode (@glassnode) May 1, 2023
Experts in the previous week recorded the movement of 2100 BTC with an “age” of seven to ten years. After filtering, the specialists excluded the option of internal transfers. Based on a comparison of similar events in the past, they stated that this time the scale of the impact on the price was not so significant.
This remark is also true for those 1100 BTC that got into wallets before 2013.
In total, only 4.25 million BTC reached the status of “antique” (over seven years). Of these, only 356,000 BTC have ever been spent, which is equivalent to 8.3% of the total. The remaining 3.9 million BTC may remain dormant due to their likely “loss”.
The rumors that arose last week about the distribution of funds among the users of the platform by the trustee of Mt.Gox do not stand up to scrutiny. Since 2018, the wallet balance from 137,890 BTC has not changed. They are expected in the future – during 2023.
The situation is similar with the 205,541 BTC owned by the US government. After March 7, when the US authorities sold 9861 BTC to Coinbase, no new movements were recorded.
Analysts have calculated that since the beginning of 2023, the monthly rate of transfer of coins from hodlers to speculators (holding up to six months) has reached 366,000 BTC. In dollar terms, they already had 28.2% of the total supply at their disposal. The indicator rose by 7.4% over the above period.
The specialists noted that by now the threshold of 40%, observed in previous bull markets, has not yet been reached.
“This suggests that the influx of new demand remains relatively weak, but the supply is still predominantly hodlers,” they explained.
On the basis of the MVRV indicator, as applied to speculators, analysts stated that the market did not overheat. Historically, this stage occurred when the metric exceeded the value of 1.4. On April 30, when testing $30,000 with Bitcoin, STH-MVRV only rose to 1.33.
A value of 1 for the indicator will correspond to the spot price of $24,400. This level can be perceived as support for the current growing trend, the specialists explained.
As part of the ongoing market recovery, the monthly rate of transfer of coins by users to exchanges reached 22,300 BTC (at the moment there were over 30,000 BTC). According to analysts’ calculations, speculators accounted for 90-95% of these transactions. The share of profit-taking by short-term investors amounted to about 58% of all transfers.
For clarity, the experts singled out profit taking by speculators and superimposed it on the bitcoin chart. Two waves coincided with the price corrections of the first cryptocurrency.
Earlier, analysts at Matrixport and UBS pointed to the limited effect of Mt.Gox compensation payments.
Recall that Bloomberg noted that the largest creditor of the bankrupt crypto exchange intends to hold the returned coins.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz predicted that bitcoin would reach $40,000 after the Fed began cutting its key rate.
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