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In just 22 years, generative AI will be able to fully automate half of all work performed today, including tasks related to decision making, management and stakeholder engagement, according to a new report from McKinsey & Co.
The prediction was made from a June 14 report from a management consulting firm that predicts that 75% of AI generative value creation will come from customer service operations, marketing and sales, software development, and R&D positions.
What’s the value and impact of #generativeAI? Companies across countless industries are already experimenting with its applications. Our new research has found that the value at stake is huge–potentially $2.6 to $4.4 trillion in #productivity annually➡ https://t.co/pY5ACuvoL1 pic.twitter.com/ecZ0RvtzHl
— McKinsey & Company (@McKinsey) June 14, 2023
The firm explained that recent developments in generative AI have “accelerated” the midpoint forecast by nearly a decade from 2053 – a 2016 estimate – to 2045.
McKinsey explained that its 2030-2060 broad range was created to cover a range of outcomes such as the speed of adoption of generative AI, investment decisions and regulation, among other factors.
His previous range for 50% automated work was 2035-2070.
However, the consulting firm said that adoption rates around the world will vary significantly from country to country:
“The adoption of automation is likely to happen faster in developed countries, where higher wages will make it economically viable sooner.”
McKinsey estimates that generative AI systems can now automate workflows that now take up 60-70% of employees’ work time.
Interestingly, the report estimates that generative AI is likely to have the “greatest impact” on highly paid workers applying a high degree of “expertise” in the form of decision making, management, and stakeholder engagement.
What will be the impact of generative AI on work, and how much value could it generate?
Explore the full research: https://t.co/A3GOfAGrHC pic.twitter.com/Qed0DhZsyE
— McKinsey Global Institute (@McKinsey_MGI) June 14, 2023
The report also predicts that the generative AI market will generate between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion annually for the global economy and be worth a whopping $15.7 trillion by 2030.
This will provide tremendous economic value in addition to the non-generative AI tools widely used today, the firm says:
“This will add 15 percent to 40 percent of the $11.0 trillion to $17.7 trillion economic value that we estimate non-generative AI and analytics can unlock.”
Generative AI systems are capable of producing text, images, audio, and video in response to cues by taking input and learning its patterns. ChatGPT by OpenAI is the most used generative AI tool today.
McKinsey’s $15.7 trillion forecast by 2030 is more than three times its $5 trillion forecast for the Metaverse over the same time period.
Related: The need for real, viable data in AI
However, the recent rise of generative AI platforms has not been without its concerns.
The United Nations recently raised “grave and urgent” concerns about generative artificial intelligence tools creating fake news and information on June 12th.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been criticized by US senators over a “leaked” version of LLaMA’s artificial intelligence tool that senators say is potentially “dangerous” and could possibly be used for “criminal tasks.”